PortugalPortugal
Primeira LigaPortugese Primeira Liga
Ronde 21

Arouca vs Vitoria Guimarães Voorspelling en Wedtips

Arouca

Arouca

12.26 pnt
7 feb 2026
3-2
Einde
Estádio Municipal de Arouca, Arouca
Incorrect
Onze keuze
Asian handicap
H. Uit -0.25
@ 1.53
3 : 2
FT

Wedtips

35%
27%
38%
AroucaGelijkspelVitoria Guimarães
Resultaat
Uitwinst
@ 2.21
38%
Beide scoren
Ja
@ 1.85
50%
Dubbele kans
Thuis/Uit
@ 1.33
35%
Asian handicap
H. Uit -0.25
@ 1.53
65%
Eerste Helft
Gelijkspel
@ 1.96
44%
HT/FT
Gelijkspel/Uit
@ 5.30
18.9%

Aanvullende markten

Totaal hoekschoppen
Over 9.5
@ 1.85
50.0%
Doelpuntenmaker op elk moment
Romualdas Jansonas
40.0%@ 2.50
Ejike Opara
36.4%@ 2.75
Nelson Oliveira
33.3%@ 3.00
Ivan MartInez Gonzalvez
32.3%@ 3.10
Alioune Ndoye
29.4%@ 3.40
Fally Mayulu
29.4%@ 3.40
Odds elk uur bijgewerkt
Voorspellingen opnieuw berekend elke 2 uur
Gespiegeld 2 uur voor de aftrap

Expertanalyse

David Coleman
David Coleman Senior Voetbalanalist
75% 20+ jaren
6 min lezen

Clash of Tactical Philosophies: Arouca and Guimaraes Set for a Critical Primeira Liga Showdown Under the bright lights of Arouca’s municipal stadium, Saturday evening will witness a fascinating tactical chess match that could shape the trajectory of ...

Lees volledige analyse

Wedstrijdgegevens

Arouca
Arouca heeft 8 rode kaarten ontvangen in 25 wedstrijden dit seizoen
Meer dan 2,5 doelpunten in 11 van de laatste 15 wedstrijden van Arouca (73%)
Arouca heeft 5 van de 12 thuiswedstrijden verloren (42%)
Arouca heeft in 8 van de 25 wedstrijden niet gescoord (32%)
Arouca gemiddeld 2.7 gele kaarten per wedstrijd (67 in 25 wedstrijden)
Arouca incasseert 2.12 doelpunten per wedstrijd (53 in 25)
Vitoria Guimarães
Vitoria Guimarães heeft in elk van de laatste 6 wedstrijden geïncasseerd
Vitoria Guimarães heeft 3 rode kaarten ontvangen in 25 wedstrijden dit seizoen
Vitoria Guimarães heeft alle 3 penalties dit seizoen gescoord
Vitoria Guimarães heeft in 9 van de 25 wedstrijden niet gescoord (36%)

Belangrijke Statistieken

Arouca3
4Gelijkspelen
3Vitoria Guimarães
3.3Gem. Goals
80%Beide Scoren
70%Plus 2.5
7 feb 2026Arouca3-2Vitoria Guimarães
30 aug 2025Vitoria Guimarães1-1Arouca
18 jan 2025Vitoria Guimarães2-2Arouca
12 aug 2024Arouca0-1Vitoria Guimarães
18 mei 2024Arouca1-3Vitoria Guimarães
Bekijk alle onderlinge wedstrijden

Kansen

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet1.933.201.77
188Bet2.743.152.50
1xBet2.903.222.66

Volledige analyse

David Coleman
David Coleman
Senior Voetbalanalist
75% Nauwkeurigheid
20+ Jaren ervaring
5.5k Voorspellingen

Clash of Tactical Philosophies: Arouca and Guimaraes Set for a Critical Primeira Liga Showdown

Under the bright lights of Arouca’s municipal stadium, Saturday evening will witness a fascinating tactical chess match that could shape the trajectory of both sides in the Portuguese Primeira Liga. The question on everyone’s mind isn’t just who will claim the three points but how each manager will set the tone—will we see a high-intensity pressing game or a more cautious, possession-based approach? With both teams sitting mid-table, the stakes are subtle but significant, especially for Guimaraes, eager to close the gap on the top half, and for Arouca, grappling to climb out of the relegation zone shadows.

The Tactical Chessboard: Managers’ Approaches and Lineup Ideals

Both Arouca and Guimaraes have deployed the 4-2-3-1 formation this season, emphasizing balanced structures that allow for flexibility. Arouca’s tactical identity leans toward a pressing style, aiming to disrupt opponents early, with their attack-minded trio often pressing high. Manager’s preference for quick transitions is evident in their 50% form consistency and their goal-scoring averages. Conversely, Guimaraes appears more conservatively structured, prioritizing stability at the back with 7 clean sheets and emphasizing midfield control—particularly through their double pivot—aiming to dictate tempo and break with swift counters.

Recent Form and The Road to This Encounter

Seven points from their last five matches have seen Arouca oscillate between promising spells and setbacks. Their wins against teams around them, coupled with draws and losses, reflect a team grappling with consistency. Their goal-scoring average of 1.1 goals while conceding roughly 1.6 suggests vulnerabilities but also moments of attacking promise, with half of their matches seeing both teams scoring.

Guimaraes, with a slightly better current record, have accumulated 4 wins from their last ten outings, with a similar scoring average of 1.1. Their defensive record stands out slightly more, conceding just over a goal per game, and securing 50% clean sheets. Their recent WLLWD form indicates a team capable of both resilience and awkward spellings, often oscillating between defensive solidity and attacking lethargy.

Head-to-Head Tapestry: Patterns and Precedents

Historically, encounters between these two sides are marked by tight contests and frequent draws—four of their last nine meetings ended in stalemate, with an average of over three goals per game. Notably, their recent clashes have been high scoring and evenly contested, with goals flowing in averages of 3.11 per match and an impressive 78% BTTS rate. This suggests that the upcoming fixture might follow suit, with goals likely to flow either way.

Key Players to Watch: The Heartbeats of Their Teams

Arouca’s Offensive Threats

  • A. Trezza: With 6 goals and 2 assists, Trezza is the creative nucleus—his ability to find space and unlock defenses could be decisive.
  • N. Djouahra: A goal-scoring machine with 5 goals, his movement and finishing could tip the scales if he finds space.
  • Lee Hyun-Ju: With 3 goals and 2 assists, his versatility from the wings offers width and unpredictability.

Guimaraes’ Playmakers and Finishing Men

  • O. Camara: Leading scorer with 3 goals, his presence in the box can be a thorn for Arouca’s defenders.
  • Samu: Also on 3 goals, his quick movement and link-up play could open up chances.
  • Nélson Oliveira: Just behind with 3 goals but no assists, he’s a clinical finisher ready to capitalize on half-chances.

While all are capable of influencing proceedings, the key may lie in the midfield battle—where Guimaraes’s control could stifle Arouca’s attacking rhythm or allow Trezza and Djouahra space to exploit.

Analytic Breakdown: Patterns and Probabilities

Looking at season statistics, Arouca has scored 23 goals but conceded 44, indicating defensive frailty despite a modest attack. Guimaraes, contrastingly, has scored 21 but conceded only 27, with 7 clean sheets highlighting their defensive solidity. Both teams’ 4-2-3-1 formations suggest a focus on midfield battles—Arouca’s higher attacking involvement versus Guimaraes’s defensive discipline.

The last five head-to-head fixtures include two draws and three narrow victories, with goals in every match, averaging over three per game. The high BTTS rate (78%) suggests that this fixture could be another open, exciting game with both teams eager to avoid slipping further behind.

Crunching the Odds: Value and Predictions

Bookmakers currently favor Guimaraes slightly, with the 1X2 odds reflecting their marginal edge—though the confidence levels are cautious. Our analysis assigns a 42% probability to a Guimaraes victory, considering their defensive resilience and recent form. The match is also tight on over/under goals, with a slight lean towards under 2.5, owing to both teams’ defensive metrics and recent scoring patterns.

The bet on Both Teams to Score (BTTS) stands at around 51% confidence, aligned with their recent head-to-head scoring trend. The Double Chance X2 offers a safeguard, given the close odds and historical parity, with a 36% confidence level. Notably, the implied probabilities suggest that betting on Guimaraes’s win at current odds offers value, especially considering their 50% clean sheet rate and overall defensive stability.

Forecast and Final Call

Given the tactical setups, recent form, and head-to-head trends, a cautious prediction favors a tight contest with goals likely. The balance of probabilities points toward an under 2.5 goals result, with a slight edge for Guimaraes to eke out a narrow victory, potentially via a set-piece or a moment of individual brilliance. The likelihood of both teams scoring remains high, emphasizing an open, end-to-end game.

Best Bets and Their Rationale

  • Guimaraes Win (1X2): At odds around 2.60 (varies by bookmaker), with implied probability ~38%, but our analysis suggests a slightly higher likelihood (~42%). Potential value exists.
  • Under 2.5 Goals: While the recent scoring averages are high, both teams’ defensive records and tendencies suggest this might be a more disciplined, lower-scoring game. Odds hover near 1.80, with a 55% confidence level.
  • Both Teams to Score (BTTS): At roughly 1.85 odds, with confidence around 51%, this bet aligns with the high BTTS occurrence and attacking threats on both sides.
  • Double Chance X2: Protects against a Guimaraes loss, with a solid probability (~65%) given the head-to-head history and defensive stats.

In essence, this fixture is a tactical duel with an emphasis on disciplined defending and fleeting attacking moments. Guimaraes’s slightly better defensive record and midfield control give them the edge, but Arouca’s home advantage and attacking creativity keep this match finely poised and potentially explosive.

Aanvullende informatie

AroucaArouca

Top scorers

A. Trezza
A. TrezzaMiddenvelder
6Goals
N. Djouahra
N. DjouahraMiddenvelder
5Goals
Lee Hyun-Ju
Lee Hyun-JuMiddenvelder
3Goals
Barbero
BarberoAanvaller
3Goals
T. Fukui
T. FukuiMiddenvelder
2Goals

Assists

A. Trezza
A. TrezzaMiddenvelder
2Assists
Lee Hyun-Ju
Lee Hyun-JuMiddenvelder
2Assists
T. Fukui
T. FukuiMiddenvelder
2Assists
José Fontán
José FontánVerdediger
2Assists
N. Djouahra
N. DjouahraMiddenvelder
1Assists

Kaarten

Tiago Esgaio
Tiago EsgaioVerdediger
80
José Fontán
José FontánVerdediger
50
E. van Ee
E. van EeMiddenvelder
40
Lee Hyun-Ju
Lee Hyun-JuMiddenvelder
30
T. Fukui
T. FukuiMiddenvelder
21
Vitoria GuimarãesVitoria Guimarães

Top scorers

O. Camara
O. CamaraMiddenvelder
3Goals
Samu
SamuMiddenvelder
3Goals
Nélson Oliveira
Nélson OliveiraAanvaller
3Goals
A. Ndoye
A. NdoyeAanvaller
2Goals
M. Mitrović
M. MitrovićMiddenvelder
2Goals

Assists

R. Abascal
R. AbascalVerdediger
2Assists
N. Saviolo
N. SavioloAanvaller
2Assists
Gonçalo Nogueira
Gonçalo NogueiraMiddenvelder
2Assists
O. Camara
O. CamaraMiddenvelder
1Assists
Samu
SamuMiddenvelder
1Assists

Kaarten

João Mendes
João MendesVerdediger
60
Beni
BeniMiddenvelder
50
Miguel Maga
Miguel MagaVerdediger
50
Nélson Oliveira
Nélson OliveiraAanvaller
31
Fabio Blanco
Fabio BlancoAanvaller
31

Gedetailleerde Vorm & Recente Wedstrijden

Arouca
LLLWL
10Gespeeld
4Overwinningen
0Gelijkspelen
6Verliezingen
Punten/Wedstrijd1.2
Winst %40%
Goals/Wedstrijd3.2
Gem. Goals1.6
Gem. Conceded1.6
Beide Scoren60%
Schone sheets30%
Niet gescoord10%

Recente Wedstrijden

14 mrtLvs Benfica1-2
6 mrtLbij Famalicão0-1
27 febLbij FC Porto1-3
21 febWvs Nacional3-0
14 febLbij Casa Pia2-3
Vitoria Guimarães
LLDLW
10Gespeeld
3Overwinningen
1Gelijkspelen
6Verliezingen
Punten/Wedstrijd1
Winst %30%
Goals/Wedstrijd3.1
Gem. Goals1.3
Gem. Conceded1.8
Beide Scoren70%
Schone sheets10%
Niet gescoord20%

Recente Wedstrijden

14 mrtLvs Famalicão1-2
8 mrtLbij Santa Clara0-2
28 febDvs Alverca1-1
21 febLbij SC Braga2-3
14 febWvs Estrela2-1

Onderlinge Resultaten

Wedstrijdstatistieken

MaatstafWaarde
Totaal Wedstrijden10
Gemiddeld Goals3.3
Beide Scoren80%
Meer dan 2.5 Goals70%
Meer dan 1.5 Goals90%

Goals per Team

TeamTotaalGemiddeld
Arouca171.7 per spel
Vitoria Guimarães161.6 per spel

Schone sheets

TeamSchone sheets
Arouca1 (10%)
Vitoria Guimarães1 (10%)
7 feb 2026Portugese Primeira LigaArouca3-2Vitoria Guimarães
30 aug 2025Portugese Primeira LigaVitoria Guimarães1-1Arouca
18 jan 2025Portugese Primeira LigaVitoria Guimarães2-2Arouca
12 aug 2024Portugese Primeira LigaArouca0-1Vitoria Guimarães
18 mei 2024Portugese Primeira LigaArouca1-3Vitoria Guimarães
15 jan 2024Portugese Primeira LigaVitoria Guimarães2-1Arouca
11 mrt 2023Portugese Primeira LigaVitoria Guimarães0-2Arouca
18 sep 2022Portugese Primeira LigaArouca2-2Vitoria Guimarães
19 feb 2022Portugese Primeira LigaVitoria Guimarães1-3Arouca
18 sep 2021Portugese Primeira LigaArouca2-2Vitoria Guimarães